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Australia
Arafura Rare Earths
An ASX-listed developer building the Nolans project in the Northern Territory, Australia, an integrated mine and separation plant designed to produce 4,440 t/yr of NdPr oxide (nameplate) for NdFeB magnet supply chains, with first production targeted for 2029.
Points to check
Facts from the sources on this page that a reader should weigh before relying on the company's own figures.
- Senior debt (US$775M) holds conditional credit approvals only; contractual close was targeted for October 2026 and had not been announced as of 16 Oct 2026.
- The '~93% of binding offtake target' cited at FID includes a non-binding EFA letter of support for 500 t/yr; the Indian SPV deal is a term sheet conditional on India's incentive-scheme designation.
- The Hyundai/Kia offtake's conditions precedent were due by 30 Jun 2026 and the Siemens Gamesa offtake's by 30 Sep 2026, dates that preceded any production; Arafura said in June 2026 it was renegotiating existing offtakes and would no longer name counterparties unless material.
- Mineral Resource (2017) and Ore Reserve (2020) estimates have not been updated; the FY2026 annual report restates them.
- First production has moved from 2025 (2022 guidance) to 2029 (2026 guidance).
At a glance
- Founded
- 2003 — Listed on the ASX in 2003 as Arafura Resources; renamed Arafura Rare Earths Ltd in October 2022.
- Headquarters
- Perth, Western Australia, Australia (project in the Northern Territory)
- Ownership
- Public, ASX:ARU (also quoted OTC: ARAFF). Hancock Prospecting held ~17.5% after the May 2026 placement (before SPP and cornerstone shares), per the June 2026 quarterly. Export Finance Australia (US$100M) and the German Raw Materials Fund via KfW (EUR50M) have binding cornerstone equity subscriptions; completion was a pending condition as of the June 2026 quarterly.
- Stage
- Developing. Investment decision on May 21, 2026 and first sod turned on October 8, 2026; the US$775 million senior debt has conditional approvals but had not closed by mid-October.
- Listing
- ASX: ARU · OTC: ARAFF
Investor relations - Revenue
- Not publicly disclosed. This company does not publish revenue and no named third party has published an estimate of it.
Capacity
Each date below links to the document the figure came from. A capacity figure with no source is not on this page.
| What | Figure | Status | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| NdPr oxide, Nolans separation plant | 4,440 t/yr (nameplate / study average over 38-year life) | Under construction | Aug 2026 |
| Mixed middle/heavy rare earth (SEG/HRE) oxide, Nolans | 573 t/yr (FY2026 annual report; company website says ~470 t/yr; study figure) | Under construction | Aug 2026 |
| Phosphoric acid (54% P2O5, by-product), Nolans | 144,393 t/yr (study figure) | Under construction | Aug 2026 |
| Concentrate processing (extraction plant feed), Nolans | 340,000 t/yr concentrate (design capacity) | Under construction | May 2026 |
Narrative
Arafura Rare Earths, listed on the ASX since 2003 as Arafura Resources and renamed in October 2022, is developing the Nolans Project about 135 km north of Alice Springs in the Northern Territory. The project combines an open-pit mine with beneficiation, extraction and solvent-extraction separation plants on one site, designed to take ore through to separated oxide. Study and nameplate figures are 4,440 t/yr of NdPr oxide, about 470 to 573 t/yr of mixed middle and heavy rare earth oxide (company sources differ) and about 144,000 t/yr of phosphoric acid as a by-product, over a 38-year life; the Ore Reserve dates from March 2020 (29.5 Mt at 2.9% TREO). Senior debt of US$775 million from Export Finance Australia, the Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility, Export Development Canada, KEXIM and commercial banks received conditional credit approvals in July 2024. Export Finance Australia (US$100 million) and the German Raw Materials Fund (EUR 50 million) signed binding equity subscriptions in March 2026, and the National Reconstruction Fund Corporation executed documents for A$200 million of convertible notes in May 2026. Arafura announced a final investment decision on May 21, 2026, with Hatch as EPCM contractor, and raised A$350 million in a placement and A$11.5 million in a share purchase plan. Cash and term deposits were A$723 million at June 30, 2026. The first sod was turned on October 8, 2026. The company plans a build of about 37 months; published guidance places first production in 2029 (mid-2029 per the Northern Territory Government, late 2029 per coverage of the September 2026 results call) and nameplate output around 2031 to 2032. Contractual close of the senior debt was targeted for October 2026 and had not been announced as of October 16, 2026. Binding offtake agreements, each subject to conditions precedent, cover up to 1,500 t/yr for Hyundai and Kia, 850 t/yr for Traxys North America (October 2026), 100 to 300 t/yr for Traxys Europe and up to 500 t/yr for an unnamed wind turbine maker (extended September 2026). A conditional term sheet with an Indian industrial group and a non-binding letter of support for Australia's critical minerals reserve, 500 t/yr each, are not final agreements.
Where public sources disagree
- Project cost: FY2026 annual report gives base-case pre-production capital US$1,191M; Arafura's project-update page (2024 model) gives US$1,226M; Mining Weekly (22 May 2026) gives A$1.39B plus A$196M contingency; Reuters, the NT Government and Mining Weekly cite a '$1.6 billion' project (Diggers & Dealers summary: US$1.6B development cost, which per the June 2026 quarterly includes working capital and financing costs).
- SEG/HRE oxide output: 573 t/yr (FY2026 annual report; Diggers & Dealers Aug 2026) vs ~470 t/yr (arultd.com Nolans page) vs 474 t/yr (Mining Weekly, 22 May 2026).
- First production timing: mid-2029 (NT Government 12 Oct 2026; Reuters May 2026) vs early-to-mid 2029 (Mining Weekly 18 Sep and 12 Oct 2026) vs late 2029 (coverage of the 4 Sep 2026 results call) vs 'commercial production and ramp-up by December 2028' (Mining Weekly 22 May 2026 project update).
- Equity raised in Oct-Dec 2025: ~A$475M plus SPP (half-year report) vs A$481M (22 May 2026 placement announcement, as reported by Mining Weekly).
- Indian SPV term sheet volume: highlights of the 30 Jun 2026 announcement say 500 t/yr NdPr oxide; the body says up to 500 t/yr of magnet feed including NdPr, Dy and Tb.
Latest reports
| Period | Published | Report |
|---|---|---|
| FY26 (year to 30 Jun 2026) | 2026-08-31 | 2026 Annual Report (republished copy) |
| Q4 FY26 (quarter to 30 Jun 2026) | 2026-07-31 | Quarterly Activities Report and Appendix 5B for Period Ending 30 June 2026 |
| Q3 FY26 (quarter to 31 Mar 2026) | 2026-04-29 | Quarterly Activities Report and Appendix 5B for Period Ending 31 March 2026 |
| H1 FY26 (half-year to 31 Dec 2025) | 2026-02-18 | Half Year Accounts (republished copy) |
Across these reports
Arafura went from A$27.2m cash at 30 June 2025 to A$723m in cash and term deposits at 30 June 2026 after equity raisings, and reached a final investment decision on Nolans on 21 May 2026, inside its H2 FY2026 target. Construction is scheduled to start in September 2026, with first production targeted for the end of 2029.
| Measure | What the reports show |
|---|---|
| Cash (and term deposits) | A$27.2m (30 Jun 2025) → A$571.3m (31 Dec 2025) → A$561m (31 Mar 2026) → A$723m cash plus term deposits (30 Jun 2026, of which A$223m cash and A$500m term deposits). |
| Equity raised | A$554.8m of placements and share purchase plans (Aug-Dec 2025), then an A$350m placement plus an A$11.5m share purchase plan in the June 2026 quarter; A$230m of cornerstone equity from Export Finance Australia and the German Raw Materials Fund expected September 2026. |
| Nolans development spending (quarterly) | About A$3.8m on project development in the March 2026 quarter (plus A$6.75m for a 208-room accommodation camp) → A$9.3m in the June 2026 quarter. |
| Net loss (half-year) | A$18.9m (H1 FY25) → A$13.0m (H1 FY26). |
| Binding NdPr offtakes | Three binding offtakes, 66% of the binding offtake target (Feb 2026) → five binding commitments after two more (Traxys North America and an Indian government-backed scheme, each 500 t/yr NdPr and 7 t/yr Dy/Tb) in the June 2026 quarter. |
| Nolans capital cost and capacity | Pre-production capital US$998m base case, US$1,191m including other costs and contingency; total funding requirement about US$1.9bn; nameplate 4,440 t/yr NdPr oxide. |
Stated dates
| Target | First stated | Now | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Final investment decision on Nolans | Targeted for H2 FY2026, i.e. by 30 Jun 2026 (half-year 2026-02-18; restated in quarterly 2026-04-29) | Achieved 21 May 2026 | met |
| Start of construction | September 2026 (FID announcement, 21 May 2026) | September 2026; the 4 Sep 2026 FY26 results call said access works would begin within about two weeks | not yet due |
| First production | End of 2029, from a 37-month construction schedule (FY26 results call, 4 Sep 2026) | End of 2029; ramp-up to nameplate by end of 2031 or early 2032 | not yet due |
| A$230m cornerstone equity from Export Finance Australia and the German Raw Materials Fund | Binding subscriptions secured in the March 2026 quarter (quarterly 2026-04-29) | Expected September 2026 | not yet due |
Figures are as the company reported them, linked to each report. This summarizes what changed between reports; it is not a view on the company or its shares.
Sources
- June 2026 quarterly (ASX) — Arafura Rare Earths (2026-07-31)
- First sod turned on Nolans — NT Territory Coordinator (2026-10-12)
- Annual Report FY2026 (ASX) — Arafura Rare Earths (2026-08-31)
- A$350M placement and SPP (ASX) — Arafura Rare Earths (2026-05-22)
- Business and Offtake Update (ASX) — Arafura Rare Earths (2026-06-30)
- Extends binding offtake (ASX) — Arafura Rare Earths (2026-09-18)
- Binding 850 t/yr NdPr offtake — Mining Weekly (2026-10-12)
- Traxys expanded 70% — Mining.com.au (2026-10-13)
- Traxys NA term sheet — Traxys (2026-05-14)
- Half-year report Dec 2025 (ASX) — Arafura Rare Earths (2026-02-18)
- Major debt funding milestone (ASX) — Arafura Rare Earths (2024-07-23)
- US$533M government package (ASX) — Arafura Rare Earths (2024-03-14)
- EFA equity update (ASX) — Arafura Rare Earths (2025-10-21)
- EDC support renewed — Mining Weekly (2025-12-01)
- Hyundai/Kia offtake (ASX) — Arafura Rare Earths (2022-11-07)
- Siemens Gamesa offtake (ASX) — Arafura Rare Earths (2023-04-11)
- Traxys Europe offtake (ASX) — Arafura Rare Earths (2025-03-20)
- Nolans project page — Arafura Rare Earths (2024-10-20)
- Nolans project update page — Arafura Rare Earths (2024-10-20)
- Arafura approves $1.6B project — Reuters via Yahoo Finance (2026-05-21)
- Nolans project update — Mining Weekly (2026-05-22)
- Extended wind offtake — Mining Weekly (2026-09-18)
- FY2026 results call coverage — Newscase (2026-09-04)
- Diggers & Dealers summary — FilingReader (2026-08-03)
- Annual report summary — FilingReader (2026-08-31)
- Arafura Rare Earths — Wikipedia (2026-10-16)
How this page is sourced
Everything here comes from public sources — company filings, annual reports, exchange announcements, government releases and trade press. Every figure is linked to the document it came from and carries the date that document was published, because a capacity number without a date is not a fact, it is a rumor with a decimal point.
What is deliberately absent: material nonpublic information. I have spent more than two decades in this industry and a good deal of what I know about these companies I learned under NDA. Those obligations do not expire and they do not bend for a website. Nothing I have been told in confidence appears here in any form, and nothing on this page — or missing from it — should be read as a signal about what I know privately. I hold NDAs absolutely. It is the reason clients tell me things.
Judgment is the other thing left out on purpose. This page reports what has been published and who published it. Whether a target is credible, whether a ramp will hold, whether a capacity figure survives contact with the plant behind it — that is the work I do for clients, and it does not belong in a free reference page.
Where public sources disagree, I say so rather than picking a winner. Where a figure has not been published, the field says so rather than carrying an estimate. An empty field is information too.
Public filings tell you what a company has said. Whether it holds up is a different question, and the one I get hired to answer.
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